2026 · Transparent Model · All 30 Clubs

Playoff Odds Lab

Daily postseason probability, reconstructed from real completed games and the current standings snapshot. Pick any team and see the division path, wild-card path, bye path, cutline, and day-over-day movement.

All teams Timeline Movement Standings JSON

18.9% Chase mode

Tigers -5.9 pts since last model day

AL Central Detroit Tigers

Record45-52 Projected78.5 W WC Cut86.1 W Run Diff+25

Focus

Trend Tigers over 75 model days

Paths How they get in

Division6.9%

Wild Card12.0%

First-round bye2.1%

Detroit Tigers 45-52, 4th in AL Central, 3.5 games back of the final wild card with 65 to play; model gives them 18.9% playoff odds.

Movement What changed

Largest riser Astros +6.8 pts Largest faller Pirates -15.4 pts

Timeline scrubber Replay the odds board

Model day 2026-08-18

LeaderDodgers 99.4% Bubble14 clubs Best daily jumpAstros +6.8 pts Sharpest dropPirates -15.4 pts

Dodgers62-36 · NL West DIV 99.5%WC 0.1% 99.4% 0.0 pts #2

Brewers60-37 · NL Central DIV 96.8%WC 2.7% 99.4% 0.0 pts #3

Braves56-40 · NL East DIV 91.6%WC 6.2% 97.7% -0.4 pts #4

White Sox51-45 · AL Central DIV 65.3%WC 19.4% 84.7% -2.2 pts #5

Rangers49-48 · AL West DIV 65.4%WC 19.0% 84.4% +3.8 pts #6

Rays56-40 · AL East DIV 54.0%WC 11.3% 65.3% -14.4 pts #7

Yankees54-43 · AL East DIV 45.8%WC 18.2% 64.0% -13.1 pts #8

Cubs54-43 · NL Central DIV 3.2%WC 51.8% 55.0% -6.2 pts #9

Phillies54-44 · NL East DIV 8.2%WC 46.8% 55.0% 0.0 pts #10

Marlins52-46 · NL East DIV 6.4%WC 48.6% 55.0% 0.0 pts #11

Red Sox48-48 · AL East DIV 14.0%WC 41.0% 55.0% 0.0 pts #12

Guardians51-46 · AL Central DIV 34.6%WC 20.4% 55.0% -4.8 pts #13

Cardinals51-45 · NL Central DIV 0.7%WC 54.3% 55.0% 0.0 pts #14

Twins49-49 · AL Central DIV 17.6%WC 37.4% 55.0% 0.0 pts #15

Mariners48-50 · AL West DIV 34.9%WC 18.3% 53.2% -11.1 pts #16

Astros47-52 · AL West DIV 17.8%WC 15.0% 32.8% +6.8 pts #17

Orioles47-51 · AL East DIV 2.1%WC 21.2% 23.3% -7.5 pts #18

Pirates50-47 · NL Central DIV 0.9%WC 19.9% 20.8% -15.4 pts #19

Tigers45-52 · AL Central DIV 6.9%WC 12.0% 18.9% -5.9 pts #20

D-backs49-48 · NL West DIV 0.2%WC 13.1% 13.3% -12.7 pts #21

Blue Jays45-52 · AL East DIV 0.5%WC 12.6% 13.1% -8.0 pts #22

Nationals49-49 · NL East DIV 1.3%WC 10.1% 11.4% -13.8 pts #23

Padres48-49 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 8.9% 9.0% -10.5 pts #24

Reds44-52 · NL Central DIV 0.1%WC 3.7% 3.8% -5.4 pts #25

Athletics41-56 · AL West DIV 0.6%WC 2.8% 3.4% -4.3 pts #26

Royals39-59 · AL Central DIV 0.1%WC 2.8% 2.9% -2.1 pts #27

Giants42-55 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 2.5% 2.5% -3.0 pts #28

Angels38-60 · AL West DIV 0.4%WC 1.9% 2.3% -2.2 pts #29

Mets41-57 · NL East DIV 0.1%WC 1.6% 1.7% -2.3 pts #30

Rockies39-60 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 0.8% 0.8% -1.4 pts

Movement board All 30 over time

1D riser Astros +6.8 pts 1D faller Pirates -15.4 pts 7D riser Rangers +29.4 pts 7D faller Rays -32.4 pts

Dodgers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 95.6%-99.4% Control

Brewers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 43.7%-99.4% Control

Braves 97.7%

1D-0.4 pts 7D+1.1 pts 30D-1.7 pts

Window 95.9%-99.4% Control

White Sox 84.7%

1D-2.2 pts 7D-1.9 pts 30D+20.2 pts

Window 42.3%-92.8% On track

Rangers 84.4%

1D+3.8 pts 7D+29.4 pts 30D+42.7 pts

Window 30.8%-84.4% On track

Rays 65.3%

1D-14.4 pts 7D-32.4 pts 30D-11.2 pts

Window 65.3%-97.7% In the mix

Yankees 64.0%

1D-13.1 pts 7D-8.4 pts 30D-35.2 pts

Window 64.0%-99.4% In the mix

Cubs 55.0%

1D-6.2 pts 7D-1.7 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 34.8%-99.3% In the mix

Phillies 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 2.6%-59.9% In the mix

Marlins 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+24.1 pts

Window 6.8%-55.0% In the mix

Red Sox 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+27.0 pts 30D+38.1 pts

Window 12.3%-55.0% In the mix

Guardians 55.0%

1D-4.8 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D-7.1 pts

Window 55.0%-99.0% In the mix

Cardinals 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+24.9 pts 30D-5.8 pts

Window 23.9%-62.8% In the mix

Twins 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+11.5 pts 30D+31.0 pts

Window 19.3%-55.0% In the mix

Mariners 53.2%

1D-11.1 pts 7D-31.9 pts 30D-35.4 pts

Window 40.2%-95.2% In the mix

Astros 32.8%

1D+6.8 pts 7D+0.3 pts 30D+13.6 pts

Window 12.2%-55.0% Chase mode

Orioles 23.3%

1D-7.5 pts 7D+5.3 pts 30D-3.9 pts

Window 16.0%-42.4% Chase mode

Pirates 20.8%

1D-15.4 pts 7D-0.3 pts 30D-11.6 pts

Window 15.2%-55.0% Chase mode

Tigers 18.9%

1D-5.9 pts 7D-4.0 pts 30D+3.7 pts

Window 9.8%-91.7% Chase mode

D-backs 13.3%

1D-12.7 pts 7D+0.2 pts 30D-26.7 pts

Window 8.1%-55.4% Long shot

Blue Jays 13.1%

1D-8.0 pts 7D-13.7 pts 30D-17.8 pts

Window 13.1%-55.0% Long shot

Nationals 11.4%

1D-13.8 pts 7D-10.3 pts 30D-43.6 pts

Window 7.3%-55.0% Long shot

Padres 9.0%

1D-10.5 pts 7D-6.4 pts 30D-46.0 pts

Window 9.0%-60.8% Long shot

Reds 3.8%

1D-5.4 pts 7D-3.4 pts 30D-17.7 pts

Window 3.8%-55.0% Faint pulse

Athletics 3.4%

1D-4.3 pts 7D-11.0 pts 30D-51.6 pts

Window 3.4%-91.7% Faint pulse

Royals 2.9%

1D-2.1 pts 7D-4.3 pts 30D-6.0 pts

Window 2.9%-55.0% Faint pulse

Giants 2.5%

1D-3.0 pts 7D-0.2 pts 30D-4.0 pts

Window 2.5%-8.5% Faint pulse

Angels 2.3%

1D-2.2 pts 7D-4.0 pts 30D-7.4 pts

Window 2.3%-26.7% Faint pulse

Mets 1.7%

1D-2.3 pts 7D-1.4 pts 30D-12.5 pts

Window 1.7%-18.4% Faint pulse

Rockies 0.8%

1D-1.4 pts 7D-1.4 pts 30D-2.6 pts

Window 0.8%-8.6% Faint pulse

National League Top paths

DodgersControl 99.4%

BrewersControl 99.4%

BravesControl 97.7%

CubsIn the mix 55.0%

PhilliesIn the mix 55.0%

MarlinsIn the mix 55.0%

CardinalsIn the mix 55.0%

American League Top paths

White SoxOn track 84.7%

RangersOn track 84.4%

RaysIn the mix 65.3%

YankeesIn the mix 64.0%

Red SoxIn the mix 55.0%

GuardiansIn the mix 55.0%

TwinsIn the mix 55.0%

NL West

Dodgers 99.5%

D-backs 0.2%

Padres 0.1%

Giants 0.1%

Rockies 0.1%

NL Central

Brewers 96.8%

Cubs 3.2%

Pirates 0.9%

Cardinals 0.7%

Reds 0.1%

NL East

Braves 91.6%

Phillies 8.2%

Marlins 6.4%

Nationals 1.3%

Mets 0.1%

AL Central

White Sox 65.3%

Guardians 34.6%

Twins 17.6%

Tigers 6.9%

Royals 0.1%

AL West

Rangers 65.4%

Mariners 34.9%

Astros 17.8%

Athletics 0.6%

Angels 0.4%

AL East

Rays 54.0%

Yankees 45.8%

Red Sox 14.0%

Orioles 2.1%

Blue Jays 0.5%

All teams Odds board

#	Team	Playoff	1D	7D	30D	Division	WC	Bye	Proj W	WC Cut	Status
1	Los Angeles Dodgers62-36 · NL West	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	99.5%	0.1%	54.3%	102.3	94.5	Control
2	Milwaukee Brewers60-37 · NL Central	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	96.8%	2.7%	48.4%	100.5	94.5	Control
3	Atlanta Braves56-40 · NL East	97.7%	-0.4 pts	+1.1 pts	-1.7 pts	91.6%	6.2%	33.2%	94.8	94.5	Control
4	Chicago White Sox51-45 · AL Central	84.7%	-2.2 pts	-1.9 pts	+20.2 pts	65.3%	19.4%	32.7%	86.9	86.1	On track
5	Texas Rangers49-48 · AL West	84.4%	+3.8 pts	+29.4 pts	+42.7 pts	65.4%	19.0%	23.0%	80.7	86.1	On track
6	Tampa Bay Rays56-40 · AL East	65.3%	-14.4 pts	-32.4 pts	-11.2 pts	54.0%	11.3%	33.1%	91.5	86.1	In the mix
7	New York Yankees54-43 · AL East	64.0%	-13.1 pts	-8.4 pts	-35.2 pts	45.8%	18.2%	27.5%	91.0	86.1	In the mix
8	Chicago Cubs54-43 · NL Central	55.0%	-6.2 pts	-1.7 pts	0.0 pts	3.2%	51.8%	0.8%	89.6	94.5	In the mix
9	Philadelphia Phillies54-44 · NL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	8.2%	46.8%	1.7%	87.1	94.5	In the mix
10	Miami Marlins52-46 · NL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+24.1 pts	6.4%	48.6%	1.2%	86.2	94.5	In the mix
11	Boston Red Sox48-48 · AL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	+27.0 pts	+38.1 pts	14.0%	41.0%	6.5%	85.6	86.1	In the mix
12	Cleveland Guardians51-46 · AL Central	55.0%	-4.8 pts	0.0 pts	-7.1 pts	34.6%	20.4%	15.5%	84.9	86.1	In the mix
13	St. Louis Cardinals51-45 · NL Central	55.0%	0.0 pts	+24.9 pts	-5.8 pts	0.7%	54.3%	0.1%	84.5	94.5	In the mix
14	Minnesota Twins49-49 · AL Central	55.0%	0.0 pts	+11.5 pts	+31.0 pts	17.6%	37.4%	6.7%	82.0	86.1	In the mix
15	Seattle Mariners48-50 · AL West	53.2%	-11.1 pts	-31.9 pts	-35.4 pts	34.9%	18.3%	10.7%	78.7	86.1	In the mix
16	Houston Astros47-52 · AL West	32.8%	+6.8 pts	+0.3 pts	+13.6 pts	17.8%	15.0%	4.4%	75.9	86.1	Chase mode
17	Baltimore Orioles47-51 · AL East	23.3%	-7.5 pts	+5.3 pts	-3.9 pts	2.1%	21.2%	0.6%	79.2	86.1	Chase mode
18	Pittsburgh Pirates50-47 · NL Central	20.8%	-15.4 pts	-0.3 pts	-11.6 pts	0.9%	19.9%	0.2%	85.5	94.5	Chase mode
19	Detroit Tigers45-52 · AL Central	18.9%	-5.9 pts	-4.0 pts	+3.7 pts	6.9%	12.0%	2.1%	78.5	86.1	Chase mode
20	Arizona Diamondbacks49-48 · NL West	13.3%	-12.7 pts	+0.2 pts	-26.7 pts	0.2%	13.1%	0.0%	81.9	94.5	Long shot
21	Toronto Blue Jays45-52 · AL East	13.1%	-8.0 pts	-13.7 pts	-17.8 pts	0.5%	12.6%	0.1%	74.4	86.1	Long shot
22	Washington Nationals49-49 · NL East	11.4%	-13.8 pts	-10.3 pts	-43.6 pts	1.3%	10.1%	0.2%	81.0	94.5	Long shot
23	San Diego Padres48-49 · NL West	9.0%	-10.5 pts	-6.4 pts	-46.0 pts	0.1%	8.9%	0.0%	79.0	94.5	Long shot
24	Cincinnati Reds44-52 · NL Central	3.8%	-5.4 pts	-3.4 pts	-17.7 pts	0.1%	3.7%	0.0%	73.4	94.5	Faint pulse
25	Athletics41-56 · AL West	3.4%	-4.3 pts	-11.0 pts	-51.6 pts	0.6%	2.8%	0.1%	64.6	86.1	Faint pulse
26	Kansas City Royals39-59 · AL Central	2.9%	-2.1 pts	-4.3 pts	-6.0 pts	0.1%	2.8%	0.0%	64.9	86.1	Faint pulse
27	San Francisco Giants42-55 · NL West	2.5%	-3.0 pts	-0.2 pts	-4.0 pts	0.1%	2.5%	0.0%	71.4	94.5	Faint pulse
28	Los Angeles Angels38-60 · AL West	2.3%	-2.2 pts	-4.0 pts	-7.4 pts	0.4%	1.9%	0.0%	63.2	86.1	Faint pulse
29	New York Mets41-57 · NL East	1.7%	-2.3 pts	-1.4 pts	-12.5 pts	0.1%	1.6%	0.0%	68.8	94.5	Faint pulse
30	Colorado Rockies39-60 · NL West	0.8%	-1.4 pts	-1.4 pts	-2.6 pts	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	63.8	94.5	Faint pulse

In-house estimate from MLB Central data; not official MLB, sportsbook, or FanGraphs odds. Daily trend line is reconstructed from completed mlb_games rows plus the current standings snapshot.