2026 · Transparent Model · All 30 Clubs

Playoff Odds Lab

Daily postseason probability, reconstructed from real completed games and the current standings snapshot. Pick any team and see the division path, wild-card path, bye path, cutline, and day-over-day movement.

All teams Timeline Movement Standings JSON

22.3% Chase mode

Astros -1.6 pts since last model day

AL West Houston Astros

Record38-43 Projected76.4 W WC Cut85.2 W Run Diff-41

Focus

Trend Astros over 75 model days

Paths How they get in

Division11.8%

Wild Card10.5%

First-round bye4.0%

Houston Astros 38-43, 4th in AL West, 2.0 games back of the final wild card with 81 to play; model gives them 22.3% playoff odds.

Movement What changed

Largest riser White Sox +28.6 pts Largest faller Padres -43.3 pts

Timeline scrubber Replay the odds board

Model day 2026-06-23

LeaderDodgers 99.4% Bubble11 clubs Best daily jumpWhite Sox +28.6 pts Sharpest dropPadres -43.3 pts

Dodgers50-29 · NL West DIV 99.5%WC 0.2% 99.4% 0.0 pts #2

Brewers48-29 · NL Central DIV 98.7%WC 1.1% 99.4% 0.0 pts #3

Yankees47-31 · AL East DIV 97.3%WC 2.4% 99.4% +0.4 pts #4

Braves48-29 · NL East DIV 96.4%WC 2.8% 99.2% -0.2 pts #5

Mariners41-39 · AL West DIV 85.0%WC 9.0% 93.9% +4.5 pts #6

White Sox41-37 · AL Central DIV 62.7%WC 21.8% 84.5% +28.6 pts #7

Cubs41-37 · NL Central DIV 1.2%WC 53.8% 55.0% 0.0 pts #8

Phillies43-36 · NL East DIV 3.5%WC 51.5% 55.0% 0.0 pts #9

Rays43-33 · AL East DIV 2.8%WC 52.2% 55.0% -17.6 pts #10

Cardinals42-35 · NL Central DIV 1.1%WC 53.9% 55.0% -4.1 pts #11

Guardians41-39 · AL Central DIV 37.0%WC 18.0% 55.0% -0.1 pts #12

Blue Jays39-40 · AL East DIV 0.4%WC 54.6% 55.0% 0.0 pts #13

Twins38-42 · AL Central DIV 23.7%WC 4.7% 28.4% -3.2 pts #14

Athletics38-40 · AL West DIV 14.0%WC 13.7% 27.8% -7.1 pts #15

Rangers38-41 · AL West DIV 15.2%WC 11.7% 26.9% -12.6 pts #16

Orioles38-42 · AL East DIV 0.2%WC 24.9% 25.1% -6.4 pts #17

Astros38-43 · AL West DIV 11.8%WC 10.5% 22.3% -1.6 pts #18

Tigers34-45 · AL Central DIV 5.2%WC 7.7% 13.0% -5.6 pts #19

Nationals41-39 · NL East DIV 1.4%WC 10.5% 11.9% -43.1 pts #20

Padres40-37 · NL West DIV 0.3%WC 11.5% 11.7% -43.3 pts #21

Marlins41-39 · NL East DIV 1.3%WC 10.2% 11.5% -27.2 pts #22

Royals34-46 · AL Central DIV 3.6%WC 7.4% 11.0% -0.7 pts #23

Red Sox31-45 · AL East DIV 0.1%WC 8.8% 8.9% -3.4 pts #24

D-backs40-39 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 8.2% 8.4% -23.9 pts #25

Pirates39-40 · NL Central DIV 0.2%WC 7.1% 7.3% -29.4 pts #26

Angels32-48 · AL West DIV 0.9%WC 5.4% 6.2% -2.7 pts #27

Reds37-41 · NL Central DIV 0.1%WC 4.1% 4.1% -17.9 pts #28

Mets34-44 · NL East DIV 0.1%WC 2.1% 2.1% -10.6 pts #29

Giants31-46 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 1.1% 1.1% -5.1 pts #30

Rockies31-48 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 0.9% 0.9% -3.6 pts

Movement board All 30 over time

1D riser White Sox +28.6 pts 1D faller Padres -43.3 pts 7D riser White Sox +20.9 pts 7D faller Nationals -43.1 pts

Dodgers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 95.6%-99.4% Control

Brewers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+0.8 pts

Window 23.1%-99.4% Control

Yankees 99.4%

1D+0.4 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+14.1 pts

Window 55.3%-99.4% Control

Braves 99.2%

1D-0.2 pts 7D-0.2 pts 30D-0.2 pts

Window 99.2%-99.4% Control

Mariners 93.9%

1D+4.5 pts 7D-0.3 pts 30D+53.7 pts

Window 18.6%-95.2% On track

White Sox 84.5%

1D+28.6 pts 7D+20.9 pts 30D+29.5 pts

Window 3.0%-85.3% On track

Phillies 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+35.6 pts

Window 1.2%-55.7% In the mix

Cubs 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+15.7 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 25.3%-99.3% In the mix

Rays 55.0%

1D-17.6 pts 7D-21.8 pts 30D-36.7 pts

Window 55.0%-93.7% In the mix

Cardinals 55.0%

1D-4.1 pts 7D-5.5 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 17.9%-62.8% In the mix

Guardians 55.0%

1D-0.1 pts 7D-7.6 pts 30D-44.0 pts

Window 55.0%-99.0% In the mix

Blue Jays 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+15.8 pts 30D+14.1 pts

Window 5.8%-55.0% In the mix

Athletics 27.8%

1D-7.1 pts 7D-27.2 pts 30D-59.0 pts

Window 26.6%-91.7% Chase mode

Rangers 26.9%

1D-12.6 pts 7D-13.9 pts 30D-13.3 pts

Window 26.9%-96.3% Chase mode

Orioles 25.1%

1D-6.4 pts 7D-2.5 pts 30D+5.4 pts

Window 16.8%-55.0% Chase mode

Twins 23.4%

1D-5.0 pts 7D-11.6 pts 30D-31.6 pts

Window 19.3%-99.2% Chase mode

Astros 22.3%

1D-1.6 pts 7D-2.0 pts 30D+3.3 pts

Window 11.0%-48.1% Chase mode

Tigers 13.0%

1D-5.6 pts 7D-2.4 pts 30D-1.3 pts

Window 9.8%-93.8% Long shot

Nationals 11.9%

1D-43.1 pts 7D-43.1 pts 30D-12.0 pts

Window 6.8%-55.0% Long shot

Padres 11.7%

1D-43.3 pts 7D-24.6 pts 30D-45.9 pts

Window 11.7%-74.2% Long shot

Marlins 11.5%

1D-27.2 pts 7D-12.9 pts 30D-4.2 pts

Window 6.8%-55.0% Long shot

Royals 11.0%

1D-0.7 pts 7D+1.9 pts 30D-8.5 pts

Window 4.8%-55.0% Long shot

Red Sox 9.9%

1D+1.0 pts 7D-7.0 pts 30D-16.3 pts

Window 8.9%-42.8% Long shot

D-backs 8.4%

1D-23.9 pts 7D-23.0 pts 30D-32.9 pts

Window 8.1%-55.4% Long shot

Pirates 7.3%

1D-29.4 pts 7D-24.8 pts 30D-26.1 pts

Window 7.3%-97.2% Long shot

Angels 6.2%

1D-2.7 pts 7D-6.4 pts 30D-2.5 pts

Window 5.5%-59.2% Long shot

Reds 4.1%

1D-17.9 pts 7D-17.4 pts 30D-21.3 pts

Window 4.1%-64.9% Faint pulse

Mets 2.1%

1D-10.6 pts 7D-9.3 pts 30D-6.1 pts

Window 1.3%-28.7% Faint pulse

Giants 1.1%

1D-5.1 pts 7D-5.6 pts 30D-5.3 pts

Window 1.1%-14.5% Faint pulse

Rockies 0.8%

1D-0.1 pts 7D-2.7 pts 30D-2.1 pts

Window 0.8%-19.1% Faint pulse

National League Top paths

DodgersControl 99.4%

BrewersControl 99.4%

BravesControl 99.2%

PhilliesIn the mix 55.0%

CubsIn the mix 55.0%

CardinalsIn the mix 55.0%

NationalsLong shot 11.9%

American League Top paths

YankeesControl 99.4%

MarinersOn track 93.9%

White SoxOn track 84.5%

RaysIn the mix 55.0%

GuardiansIn the mix 55.0%

Blue JaysIn the mix 55.0%

AthleticsChase mode 27.8%

NL West

Dodgers 99.5%

Padres 0.2%

D-backs 0.1%

Giants 0.1%

Rockies 0.1%

NL Central

Brewers 98.7%

Cubs 1.2%

Cardinals 1.1%

Pirates 0.2%

Reds 0.1%

AL East

Yankees 97.3%

Rays 2.8%

Blue Jays 0.4%

Orioles 0.2%

Red Sox 0.1%

NL East

Braves 96.4%

Phillies 3.5%

Nationals 1.4%

Marlins 1.3%

Mets 0.1%

AL West

Mariners 85.0%

Rangers 15.2%

Athletics 14.0%

Astros 11.8%

Angels 0.9%

AL Central

White Sox 62.7%

Guardians 37.0%

Twins 15.2%

Tigers 5.2%

Royals 3.6%

All teams Odds board

#	Team	Playoff	1D	7D	30D	Division	WC	Bye	Proj W	WC Cut	Status
1	Los Angeles Dodgers51-29 · NL West	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	99.5%	0.1%	57.4%	105.5	101.0	Control
2	Milwaukee Brewers48-29 · NL Central	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+0.8 pts	98.7%	1.1%	49.4%	102.3	101.0	Control
3	New York Yankees47-31 · AL East	99.4%	+0.4 pts	0.0 pts	+14.1 pts	97.3%	2.4%	79.0%	99.3	85.2	Control
4	Atlanta Braves48-29 · NL East	99.2%	-0.2 pts	-0.2 pts	-0.2 pts	96.4%	2.8%	40.0%	98.5	101.0	Control
5	Seattle Mariners41-39 · AL West	93.9%	+4.5 pts	-0.3 pts	+53.7 pts	85.0%	9.0%	42.5%	83.4	85.2	On track
6	Chicago White Sox41-37 · AL Central	84.5%	+28.6 pts	+20.9 pts	+29.5 pts	62.7%	21.8%	30.7%	83.0	85.2	On track
7	Philadelphia Phillies43-36 · NL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+35.6 pts	3.5%	51.5%	0.7%	86.8	101.0	In the mix
8	Chicago Cubs41-37 · NL Central	55.0%	0.0 pts	+15.7 pts	0.0 pts	1.2%	53.8%	0.2%	86.8	101.0	In the mix
9	Tampa Bay Rays43-33 · AL East	55.0%	-17.6 pts	-21.8 pts	-36.7 pts	2.8%	52.2%	1.6%	86.7	85.2	In the mix
10	St. Louis Cardinals42-35 · NL Central	55.0%	-4.1 pts	-5.5 pts	0.0 pts	1.1%	53.9%	0.2%	86.3	101.0	In the mix
11	Cleveland Guardians41-39 · AL Central	55.0%	-0.1 pts	-7.6 pts	-44.0 pts	37.0%	18.0%	16.6%	81.1	85.2	In the mix
12	Toronto Blue Jays39-40 · AL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	+15.8 pts	+14.1 pts	0.4%	54.6%	0.2%	79.8	85.2	In the mix
13	Athletics38-40 · AL West	27.8%	-7.1 pts	-27.2 pts	-59.0 pts	14.0%	13.7%	5.0%	77.0	85.2	Chase mode
14	Texas Rangers38-41 · AL West	26.9%	-12.6 pts	-13.9 pts	-13.3 pts	15.2%	11.7%	5.5%	77.3	85.2	Chase mode
15	Baltimore Orioles38-42 · AL East	25.1%	-6.4 pts	-2.5 pts	+5.4 pts	0.2%	24.9%	0.1%	77.2	85.2	Chase mode
16	Minnesota Twins38-43 · AL Central	23.4%	-5.0 pts	-11.6 pts	-31.6 pts	15.2%	8.1%	5.4%	77.0	85.2	Chase mode
17	Houston Astros38-43 · AL West	22.3%	-1.6 pts	-2.0 pts	+3.3 pts	11.8%	10.5%	4.0%	76.4	85.2	Chase mode
18	Detroit Tigers34-45 · AL Central	13.0%	-5.6 pts	-2.4 pts	-1.3 pts	5.2%	7.7%	1.4%	72.8	85.2	Long shot
19	Washington Nationals41-39 · NL East	11.9%	-43.1 pts	-43.1 pts	-12.0 pts	1.4%	10.5%	0.2%	83.7	101.0	Long shot
20	San Diego Padres40-37 · NL West	11.7%	-43.3 pts	-24.6 pts	-45.9 pts	0.2%	11.6%	0.0%	82.7	101.0	Long shot
21	Miami Marlins41-39 · NL East	11.5%	-27.2 pts	-12.9 pts	-4.2 pts	1.3%	10.2%	0.2%	83.3	101.0	Long shot
22	Kansas City Royals34-46 · AL Central	11.0%	-0.7 pts	+1.9 pts	-8.5 pts	3.6%	7.4%	0.9%	71.4	85.2	Long shot
23	Boston Red Sox32-45 · AL East	9.9%	+1.0 pts	-7.0 pts	-16.3 pts	0.1%	9.9%	0.0%	70.3	85.2	Long shot
24	Arizona Diamondbacks40-39 · NL West	8.4%	-23.9 pts	-23.0 pts	-32.9 pts	0.1%	8.3%	0.0%	80.4	101.0	Long shot
25	Pittsburgh Pirates39-40 · NL Central	7.3%	-29.4 pts	-24.8 pts	-26.1 pts	0.2%	7.1%	0.0%	80.1	101.0	Long shot
26	Los Angeles Angels32-48 · AL West	6.2%	-2.7 pts	-6.4 pts	-2.5 pts	0.9%	5.4%	0.2%	66.8	85.2	Long shot
27	Cincinnati Reds37-41 · NL Central	4.1%	-17.9 pts	-17.4 pts	-21.3 pts	0.1%	4.1%	0.0%	75.5	101.0	Faint pulse
28	New York Mets34-44 · NL East	2.1%	-10.6 pts	-9.3 pts	-6.1 pts	0.1%	2.1%	0.0%	71.0	101.0	Faint pulse
29	San Francisco Giants31-46 · NL West	1.1%	-5.1 pts	-5.6 pts	-5.3 pts	0.1%	1.1%	0.0%	66.3	101.0	Faint pulse
30	Colorado Rockies31-49 · NL West	0.8%	-0.1 pts	-2.7 pts	-2.1 pts	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	64.0	101.0	Faint pulse

In-house estimate from MLB Central data; not official MLB, sportsbook, or FanGraphs odds. Daily trend line is reconstructed from completed mlb_games rows plus the current standings snapshot.