2026 · Transparent Model · All 30 Clubs

Playoff Odds Lab

Daily postseason probability, reconstructed from real completed games and the current standings snapshot. Pick any team and see the division path, wild-card path, bye path, cutline, and day-over-day movement.

All teams Timeline Movement Standings JSON

0.6% Faint pulse

Royals -1.3 pts since last model day

AL Central Kansas City Royals

Record65-82 Projected71.4 W WC Cut88.2 W Run Diff-88

Focus

Trend Royals over 75 model days

Paths How they get in

Division0.3%

Wild Card0.3%

First-round bye0.0%

Kansas City Royals 65-82, 5th in AL Central, 9.0 games back of the final wild card with 15 to play; model gives them 0.6% playoff odds.

Movement What changed

Largest riser Rangers +13.0 pts Largest faller D-backs -22.9 pts

Timeline scrubber Replay the odds board

Model day 2026-09-11

LeaderBrewers 99.4% Bubble7 clubs Best daily jumpRangers +13.0 pts Sharpest dropD-backs -22.9 pts

Brewers91-56 · NL Central DIV 99.5%WC 0.3% 99.4% 0.0 pts #2

Dodgers89-57 · NL West DIV 99.5%WC 0.2% 99.4% 0.0 pts #3

Braves86-61 · NL East DIV 90.3%WC 7.9% 98.2% -0.2 pts #4

Astros75-72 · AL West DIV 84.6%WC 8.5% 93.1% +0.4 pts #5

White Sox75-71 · AL Central DIV 67.8%WC 18.3% 86.1% -1.9 pts #6

Rays87-59 · AL East DIV 78.1%WC 2.7% 80.8% -12.7 pts #7

Yankees84-62 · AL East DIV 21.6%WC 51.1% 72.7% -16.8 pts #8

Phillies82-65 · NL East DIV 9.6%WC 45.4% 55.0% -11.3 pts #9

Cubs81-66 · NL Central DIV 0.3%WC 54.7% 55.0% -8.1 pts #10

Red Sox80-67 · AL East DIV 1.8%WC 53.2% 55.0% -22.6 pts #11

Padres78-68 · NL West DIV 0.2%WC 54.8% 55.0% 0.0 pts #12

Guardians74-73 · AL Central DIV 31.3%WC 23.7% 55.0% 0.0 pts #13

Rangers72-75 · AL West DIV 15.4%WC 14.3% 29.7% +13.0 pts #14

D-backs78-69 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 11.7% 11.8% -22.9 pts #15

Blue Jays73-74 · AL East DIV 0.1%WC 11.5% 11.5% -14.9 pts #16

Twins69-77 · AL Central DIV 3.8%WC 7.2% 11.0% +3.6 pts #17

Mariners69-78 · AL West DIV 3.3%WC 5.8% 9.1% +3.2 pts #18

Tigers67-79 · AL Central DIV 1.5%WC 4.3% 5.8% +1.4 pts #19

Orioles71-76 · AL East DIV 0.1%WC 4.3% 4.3% -7.2 pts #20

Pirates74-73 · NL Central DIV 0.1%WC 2.1% 2.1% -5.0 pts #21

Cardinals72-75 · NL Central DIV 0.1%WC 1.0% 1.0% -2.8 pts #22

Marlins72-75 · NL East DIV 0.1%WC 0.9% 1.0% -2.9 pts #23

Royals65-82 · AL Central DIV 0.3%WC 0.3% 0.6% -1.3 pts #24

Reds69-77 · NL Central DIV 0.1%WC 0.5% 0.5% -1.5 pts #25

Mets68-78 · NL East DIV 0.1%WC 0.4% 0.4% -1.2 pts #26

Nationals67-81 · NL East DIV 0.1%WC 0.2% 0.4% -0.4 pts #27

Giants62-85 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 0.1% 0.4% 0.0 pts #28

Athletics59-88 · AL West DIV 0.1%WC 0.1% 0.4% 0.0 pts #29

Angels56-90 · AL West DIV 0.1%WC 0.1% 0.4% 0.0 pts #30

Rockies55-91 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 pts

Movement board All 30 over time

1D riser Rangers +13.0 pts 1D faller D-backs -22.9 pts 7D riser Rangers +10.1 pts 7D faller D-backs -25.4 pts

Brewers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+12.0 pts

Window 86.3%-99.4% Control

Dodgers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 99.4%-99.4% Control

Braves 98.2%

1D-0.2 pts 7D-1.1 pts 30D-1.2 pts

Window 84.8%-99.4% Control

Astros 93.1%

1D+0.4 pts 7D+0.9 pts 30D+7.8 pts

Window 16.1%-93.1% On track

White Sox 86.1%

1D-1.9 pts 7D-6.4 pts 30D-5.6 pts

Window 56.1%-97.4% On track

Rays 80.8%

1D-12.7 pts 7D-10.5 pts 30D-11.8 pts

Window 72.8%-99.4% On track

Yankees 72.7%

1D-16.8 pts 7D-11.5 pts 30D-10.4 pts

Window 72.3%-89.5% In the mix

Phillies 55.0%

1D-11.3 pts 7D-16.6 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 55.0%-74.9% In the mix

Cubs 55.0%

1D-8.1 pts 7D-20.1 pts 30D-25.1 pts

Window 55.0%-80.1% In the mix

Red Sox 55.0%

1D-22.6 pts 7D-18.1 pts 30D-16.4 pts

Window 13.0%-80.5% In the mix

Padres 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 12.3%-55.0% In the mix

Guardians 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+19.2 pts

Window 27.2%-62.2% In the mix

Rangers 29.7%

1D+13.0 pts 7D+10.1 pts 30D-25.3 pts

Window 16.7%-86.8% Chase mode

D-backs 11.8%

1D-22.9 pts 7D-25.4 pts 30D-43.2 pts

Window 11.8%-55.0% Long shot

Blue Jays 11.5%

1D-14.9 pts 7D-17.9 pts 30D-18.5 pts

Window 9.7%-55.0% Long shot

Twins 11.0%

1D+3.6 pts 7D+1.8 pts 30D-30.5 pts

Window 7.4%-55.0% Long shot

Mariners 9.1%

1D+3.2 pts 7D+3.4 pts 30D-7.4 pts

Window 4.3%-89.7% Long shot

Tigers 5.8%

1D+1.4 pts 7D+1.4 pts 30D-41.1 pts

Window 3.6%-55.0% Long shot

Orioles 4.3%

1D-7.2 pts 7D-9.8 pts 30D-22.7 pts

Window 4.3%-55.0% Faint pulse

Pirates 2.1%

1D-5.0 pts 7D-7.0 pts 30D-8.3 pts

Window 2.1%-55.0% Faint pulse

Cardinals 1.0%

1D-2.8 pts 7D-10.9 pts 30D-22.8 pts

Window 1.0%-55.0% Faint pulse

Marlins 1.0%

1D-2.9 pts 7D-11.1 pts 30D-30.8 pts

Window 1.0%-55.0% Faint pulse

Royals 0.6%

1D-1.3 pts 7D-2.0 pts 30D-2.2 pts

Window 0.6%-11.1% Faint pulse

Reds 0.5%

1D-1.5 pts 7D-3.9 pts 30D-10.3 pts

Window 0.5%-17.5% Faint pulse

Mets 0.4%

1D-1.2 pts 7D-1.8 pts 30D-2.8 pts

Window 0.4%-6.3% Faint pulse

Nationals 0.4%

1D-0.4 pts 7D-2.9 pts 30D-12.7 pts

Window 0.4%-39.4% Faint pulse

Giants 0.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D-1.5 pts

Window 0.4%-6.4% Faint pulse

Athletics 0.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D-1.5 pts

Window 0.4%-55.0% Faint pulse

Angels 0.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D-1.7 pts

Window 0.4%-13.7% Faint pulse

Rockies 0.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D-0.8 pts

Window 0.4%-3.6% Faint pulse

National League Top paths

BrewersControl 99.4%

DodgersControl 99.4%

BravesControl 98.2%

PhilliesIn the mix 55.0%

CubsIn the mix 55.0%

PadresIn the mix 55.0%

D-backsLong shot 11.8%

American League Top paths

AstrosOn track 93.1%

White SoxOn track 86.1%

RaysOn track 80.8%

YankeesIn the mix 72.7%

Red SoxIn the mix 55.0%

GuardiansIn the mix 55.0%

RangersChase mode 29.7%

NL Central

Brewers 99.5%

Cubs 0.3%

Pirates 0.1%

Cardinals 0.1%

Reds 0.1%

NL West

Dodgers 99.5%

Padres 0.2%

D-backs 0.1%

Giants 0.1%

Rockies 0.1%

NL East

Braves 90.3%

Phillies 9.6%

Marlins 0.1%

Mets 0.1%

Nationals 0.1%

AL West

Astros 84.6%

Rangers 15.4%

Mariners 3.3%

Athletics 0.1%

Angels 0.1%

AL Central

White Sox 67.8%

Guardians 31.3%

Twins 3.8%

Tigers 1.5%

Royals 0.3%

AL East

Rays 78.1%

Yankees 21.6%

Red Sox 1.8%

Blue Jays 0.1%

Orioles 0.1%

All teams Odds board

#	Team	Playoff	1D	7D	30D	Division	WC	Bye	Proj W	WC Cut	Status
1	Milwaukee Brewers91-56 · NL Central	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+12.0 pts	99.5%	0.3%	54.0%	100.3	94.8	Control
2	Los Angeles Dodgers89-57 · NL West	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	99.5%	0.2%	49.9%	99.1	94.8	Control
3	Atlanta Braves86-61 · NL East	98.2%	-0.2 pts	-1.1 pts	-1.2 pts	90.3%	7.9%	30.5%	94.5	94.8	Control
4	Houston Astros75-72 · AL West	93.1%	+0.4 pts	+0.9 pts	+7.8 pts	84.6%	8.5%	41.2%	82.6	88.2	On track
5	Chicago White Sox75-71 · AL Central	86.1%	-1.9 pts	-6.4 pts	-5.6 pts	67.8%	18.3%	33.9%	83.0	88.2	On track
6	Tampa Bay Rays87-59 · AL East	80.8%	-12.7 pts	-10.5 pts	-11.8 pts	78.1%	2.7%	67.7%	96.1	88.2	On track
7	New York Yankees84-62 · AL East	72.7%	-16.8 pts	-11.5 pts	-10.4 pts	21.6%	51.1%	17.7%	93.5	88.2	In the mix
8	Philadelphia Phillies82-65 · NL East	55.0%	-11.3 pts	-16.6 pts	0.0 pts	9.6%	45.4%	2.0%	90.1	94.8	In the mix
9	Chicago Cubs81-66 · NL Central	55.0%	-8.1 pts	-20.1 pts	-25.1 pts	0.3%	54.7%	0.1%	89.2	94.8	In the mix
10	Boston Red Sox80-67 · AL East	55.0%	-22.6 pts	-18.1 pts	-16.4 pts	1.8%	53.2%	1.3%	88.3	88.2	In the mix
11	San Diego Padres78-68 · NL West	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.2%	54.8%	0.0%	86.5	94.8	In the mix
12	Cleveland Guardians74-73 · AL Central	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+19.2 pts	31.3%	23.7%	13.9%	81.5	88.2	In the mix
13	Texas Rangers72-75 · AL West	29.7%	+13.0 pts	+10.1 pts	-25.3 pts	15.4%	14.3%	5.7%	79.3	88.2	Chase mode
14	Arizona Diamondbacks78-69 · NL West	11.8%	-22.9 pts	-25.4 pts	-43.2 pts	0.1%	11.7%	0.0%	85.7	94.8	Long shot
15	Toronto Blue Jays73-74 · AL East	11.5%	-14.9 pts	-17.9 pts	-18.5 pts	0.1%	11.5%	0.0%	80.5	88.2	Long shot
16	Minnesota Twins69-77 · AL Central	11.0%	+3.6 pts	+1.8 pts	-30.5 pts	3.8%	7.2%	1.1%	76.6	88.2	Long shot
17	Seattle Mariners69-78 · AL West	9.1%	+3.2 pts	+3.4 pts	-7.4 pts	3.3%	5.8%	0.9%	76.0	88.2	Long shot
18	Detroit Tigers67-79 · AL Central	5.8%	+1.4 pts	+1.4 pts	-41.1 pts	1.5%	4.3%	0.4%	74.7	88.2	Long shot
19	Baltimore Orioles71-76 · AL East	4.3%	-7.2 pts	-9.8 pts	-22.7 pts	0.1%	4.3%	0.0%	78.0	88.2	Faint pulse
20	Pittsburgh Pirates74-73 · NL Central	2.1%	-5.0 pts	-7.0 pts	-8.3 pts	0.1%	2.1%	0.0%	82.1	94.8	Faint pulse
21	St. Louis Cardinals72-75 · NL Central	1.0%	-2.8 pts	-10.9 pts	-22.8 pts	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	79.2	94.8	Faint pulse
22	Miami Marlins72-75 · NL East	1.0%	-2.9 pts	-11.1 pts	-30.8 pts	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	79.1	94.8	Faint pulse
23	Kansas City Royals65-82 · AL Central	0.6%	-1.3 pts	-2.0 pts	-2.2 pts	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	71.4	88.2	Faint pulse
24	Cincinnati Reds69-77 · NL Central	0.5%	-1.5 pts	-3.9 pts	-10.3 pts	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	76.3	94.8	Faint pulse
25	New York Mets68-78 · NL East	0.4%	-1.2 pts	-1.8 pts	-2.8 pts	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	75.9	94.8	Faint pulse
26	Washington Nationals67-81 · NL East	0.4%	-0.4 pts	-2.9 pts	-12.7 pts	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	73.2	94.8	Faint pulse
27	San Francisco Giants62-85 · NL West	0.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	-1.5 pts	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	68.7	94.8	Faint pulse
28	Athletics59-88 · AL West	0.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	-1.5 pts	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	65.2	88.2	Faint pulse
29	Los Angeles Angels56-90 · AL West	0.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	-1.7 pts	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	62.5	88.2	Faint pulse
30	Colorado Rockies55-91 · NL West	0.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	-0.8 pts	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	61.1	94.8	Faint pulse

In-house estimate from MLB Central data; not official MLB, sportsbook, or FanGraphs odds. Daily trend line is reconstructed from completed mlb_games rows plus the current standings snapshot.