2026 · Transparent Model · All 30 Clubs

Playoff Odds Lab

Daily postseason probability, reconstructed from real completed games and the current standings snapshot. Pick any team and see the division path, wild-card path, bye path, cutline, and day-over-day movement.

All teams Timeline Movement Standings JSON

9.8% Long shot

Royals -1.9 pts since last model day

AL Central Kansas City Royals

Record33-46 Projected69.4 W WC Cut84.2 W Run Diff-43

Focus

Trend Royals over 75 model days

Paths How they get in

Division2.6%

Wild Card7.2%

First-round bye0.6%

Kansas City Royals 33-46, 5th in AL Central, 6.0 games back of the final wild card with 83 to play; model gives them 9.8% playoff odds.

Movement What changed

Largest riser Yankees +0.3 pts Largest faller Pirates -27.2 pts

Timeline scrubber Replay the odds board

Model day 2026-06-23

LeaderDodgers 99.4% Bubble15 clubs Best daily jumpYankees +0.3 pts Sharpest dropPirates -27.2 pts

Dodgers50-29 · NL West DIV 99.5%WC 0.2% 99.4% 0.0 pts #2

Brewers47-29 · NL Central DIV 98.3%WC 1.5% 99.4% 0.0 pts #3

Braves48-29 · NL East DIV 97.8%WC 1.8% 99.4% 0.0 pts #4

Yankees46-31 · AL East DIV 94.4%WC 4.9% 99.3% +0.3 pts #5

Mariners40-39 · AL West DIV 74.1%WC 14.4% 88.5% -0.9 pts #6

Rays43-32 · AL East DIV 5.7%WC 53.9% 59.6% -13.0 pts #7

Cardinals42-34 · NL Central DIV 1.7%WC 53.3% 55.0% -4.1 pts #8

Cubs40-37 · NL Central DIV 0.9%WC 54.1% 55.0% 0.0 pts #9

Phillies42-36 · NL East DIV 2.1%WC 52.9% 55.0% 0.0 pts #10

Nationals41-38 · NL East DIV 1.9%WC 53.1% 55.0% 0.0 pts #11

Padres40-37 · NL West DIV 0.3%WC 54.7% 55.0% 0.0 pts #12

White Sox40-37 · AL Central DIV 52.1%WC 2.9% 55.0% -0.9 pts #13

Guardians41-38 · AL Central DIV 47.9%WC 7.1% 55.0% -0.1 pts #14

Blue Jays39-40 · AL East DIV 0.6%WC 54.4% 55.0% 0.0 pts #15

Rangers38-40 · AL West DIV 26.2%WC 6.3% 32.5% -7.0 pts #16

Twins38-42 · AL Central DIV 28.1%WC 2.4% 30.5% -1.1 pts #17

Athletics38-40 · AL West DIV 20.4%WC 9.5% 29.9% -5.0 pts #18

Orioles38-42 · AL East DIV 0.3%WC 26.7% 27.0% -4.5 pts #19

Astros38-43 · AL West DIV 17.5%WC 6.6% 24.0% +0.1 pts #20

Tigers34-44 · AL Central DIV 9.9%WC 6.9% 16.8% -1.8 pts #21

Marlins40-39 · NL East DIV 1.1%WC 10.5% 11.6% -27.1 pts #22

Royals33-46 · AL Central DIV 2.6%WC 7.2% 9.8% -1.9 pts #23

Red Sox31-45 · AL East DIV 0.1%WC 9.6% 9.7% -2.6 pts #24

Pirates39-39 · NL Central DIV 0.3%WC 9.2% 9.5% -27.2 pts #25

D-backs39-39 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 8.3% 8.4% -23.9 pts #26

Angels32-48 · AL West DIV 1.3%WC 5.5% 6.9% -2.0 pts #27

Reds37-40 · NL Central DIV 0.1%WC 5.3% 5.4% -16.6 pts #28

Mets34-43 · NL East DIV 0.1%WC 2.9% 2.9% -9.8 pts #29

Giants31-46 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 1.3% 1.3% -4.9 pts #30

Rockies31-48 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 1.0% 1.0% -3.5 pts

Movement board All 30 over time

1D riser Yankees +0.3 pts 1D faller Pirates -27.2 pts 7D riser Padres +18.7 pts 7D faller Athletics -25.1 pts

Dodgers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 95.6%-99.4% Control

Brewers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+0.8 pts

Window 23.1%-99.4% Control

Braves 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 99.4%-99.4% Control

Yankees 99.3%

1D+0.3 pts 7D-0.1 pts 30D+14.0 pts

Window 55.3%-99.4% Control

Mariners 88.5%

1D-0.9 pts 7D-5.7 pts 30D+48.3 pts

Window 18.6%-95.2% On track

Rays 59.6%

1D-13.0 pts 7D-17.2 pts 30D-32.1 pts

Window 55.0%-93.7% In the mix

Cardinals 55.0%

1D-4.1 pts 7D-5.5 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 17.9%-62.8% In the mix

Cubs 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+15.7 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 25.3%-99.3% In the mix

Phillies 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+35.6 pts

Window 1.2%-55.7% In the mix

Nationals 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+31.1 pts

Window 6.8%-55.0% In the mix

Padres 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+18.7 pts 30D-2.6 pts

Window 33.4%-74.2% In the mix

White Sox 55.0%

1D-0.9 pts 7D-8.6 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 3.0%-85.3% In the mix

Guardians 55.0%

1D-0.1 pts 7D-7.6 pts 30D-44.0 pts

Window 55.0%-99.0% In the mix

Blue Jays 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D+15.8 pts 30D+14.1 pts

Window 5.8%-55.0% In the mix

Rangers 32.5%

1D-7.0 pts 7D-8.3 pts 30D-7.7 pts

Window 30.8%-96.3% Chase mode

Twins 30.5%

1D-1.1 pts 7D-0.6 pts 30D-24.5 pts

Window 19.3%-99.2% Chase mode

Athletics 29.9%

1D-5.0 pts 7D-25.1 pts 30D-56.9 pts

Window 26.6%-91.7% Chase mode

Orioles 27.0%

1D-4.5 pts 7D-0.6 pts 30D+7.3 pts

Window 16.8%-55.0% Chase mode

Astros 24.0%

1D+0.1 pts 7D-0.3 pts 30D+5.0 pts

Window 11.0%-48.1% Chase mode

Tigers 16.8%

1D-1.8 pts 7D+1.4 pts 30D+2.5 pts

Window 9.8%-93.8% Chase mode

Marlins 11.6%

1D-27.1 pts 7D-12.8 pts 30D-4.1 pts

Window 6.8%-55.0% Long shot

Royals 9.8%

1D-1.9 pts 7D+0.7 pts 30D-9.7 pts

Window 4.8%-55.0% Long shot

Red Sox 9.7%

1D-2.6 pts 7D-7.1 pts 30D-13.3 pts

Window 9.2%-42.8% Long shot

Pirates 9.5%

1D-27.2 pts 7D-22.6 pts 30D-23.9 pts

Window 9.5%-97.2% Long shot

D-backs 8.4%

1D-23.9 pts 7D-23.0 pts 30D-32.9 pts

Window 8.1%-55.4% Long shot

Angels 6.9%

1D-2.0 pts 7D-5.7 pts 30D-1.8 pts

Window 5.5%-59.2% Long shot

Reds 5.4%

1D-16.6 pts 7D-16.1 pts 30D-20.0 pts

Window 5.4%-64.9% Long shot

Mets 2.9%

1D-9.8 pts 7D-8.5 pts 30D-5.3 pts

Window 1.3%-28.7% Faint pulse

Giants 1.3%

1D-4.9 pts 7D-5.4 pts 30D-5.1 pts

Window 1.3%-14.5% Faint pulse

Rockies 1.0%

1D-3.5 pts 7D-2.4 pts 30D-2.3 pts

Window 1.0%-19.1% Faint pulse

National League Top paths

DodgersControl 99.4%

BrewersControl 99.4%

BravesControl 99.4%

CardinalsIn the mix 55.0%

CubsIn the mix 55.0%

PhilliesIn the mix 55.0%

NationalsIn the mix 55.0%

American League Top paths

YankeesControl 99.3%

MarinersOn track 88.5%

RaysIn the mix 59.6%

White SoxIn the mix 55.0%

GuardiansIn the mix 55.0%

Blue JaysIn the mix 55.0%

RangersChase mode 32.5%

NL West

Dodgers 99.5%

Padres 0.3%

D-backs 0.1%

Giants 0.1%

Rockies 0.1%

NL Central

Brewers 98.3%

Cardinals 1.7%

Cubs 0.9%

Pirates 0.3%

Reds 0.1%

NL East

Braves 97.8%

Phillies 2.1%

Nationals 1.9%

Marlins 1.1%

Mets 0.1%

AL East

Yankees 94.4%

Rays 5.7%

Blue Jays 0.6%

Orioles 0.3%

Red Sox 0.1%

AL West

Mariners 74.1%

Rangers 26.2%

Athletics 20.4%

Astros 17.5%

Angels 1.3%

AL Central

White Sox 52.1%

Guardians 47.9%

Twins 28.1%

Tigers 9.9%

Royals 2.6%

All teams Odds board

#	Team	Playoff	1D	7D	30D	Division	WC	Bye	Proj W	WC Cut	Status
1	Los Angeles Dodgers50-29 · NL West	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	99.5%	0.2%	55.0%	103.9	100.2	Control
2	Milwaukee Brewers47-29 · NL Central	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+0.8 pts	98.3%	1.5%	49.1%	101.7	100.2	Control
3	Atlanta Braves48-29 · NL East	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	97.8%	1.8%	41.9%	98.5	100.2	Control
4	New York Yankees46-31 · AL East	99.3%	+0.3 pts	-0.1 pts	+14.0 pts	94.4%	4.9%	76.4%	97.9	84.2	Control
5	Seattle Mariners40-39 · AL West	88.5%	-0.9 pts	-5.7 pts	+48.3 pts	74.1%	14.4%	36.4%	81.8	84.2	On track
6	Tampa Bay Rays43-32 · AL East	59.6%	-13.0 pts	-17.2 pts	-32.1 pts	5.7%	53.9%	3.6%	87.8	84.2	In the mix
7	St. Louis Cardinals42-34 · NL Central	55.0%	-4.1 pts	-5.5 pts	0.0 pts	1.7%	53.3%	0.4%	87.2	100.2	In the mix
8	Chicago Cubs40-37 · NL Central	55.0%	0.0 pts	+15.7 pts	0.0 pts	0.9%	54.1%	0.2%	85.1	100.2	In the mix
9	Philadelphia Phillies42-36 · NL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+35.6 pts	2.1%	52.9%	0.4%	85.0	100.2	In the mix
10	Washington Nationals41-38 · NL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+31.1 pts	1.9%	53.1%	0.3%	84.7	100.2	In the mix
11	San Diego Padres40-37 · NL West	55.0%	0.0 pts	+18.7 pts	-2.6 pts	0.3%	54.7%	0.0%	82.7	100.2	In the mix
12	Chicago White Sox40-37 · AL Central	55.0%	-0.9 pts	-8.6 pts	0.0 pts	52.1%	2.9%	26.0%	82.2	84.2	In the mix
13	Cleveland Guardians41-38 · AL Central	55.0%	-0.1 pts	-7.6 pts	-44.0 pts	47.9%	7.1%	23.6%	81.9	84.2	In the mix
14	Toronto Blue Jays39-40 · AL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	+15.8 pts	+14.1 pts	0.6%	54.4%	0.3%	79.8	84.2	In the mix
15	Texas Rangers38-40 · AL West	32.5%	-7.0 pts	-8.3 pts	-7.7 pts	26.2%	6.3%	10.7%	78.1	84.2	Chase mode
16	Minnesota Twins38-42 · AL Central	30.5%	-1.1 pts	-0.6 pts	-24.5 pts	28.1%	2.4%	11.9%	78.9	84.2	Chase mode
17	Athletics38-40 · AL West	29.9%	-5.0 pts	-25.1 pts	-56.9 pts	20.4%	9.5%	7.8%	77.0	84.2	Chase mode
18	Baltimore Orioles38-42 · AL East	27.0%	-4.5 pts	-0.6 pts	+7.3 pts	0.3%	26.7%	0.1%	77.2	84.2	Chase mode
19	Houston Astros38-43 · AL West	24.0%	+0.1 pts	-0.3 pts	+5.0 pts	17.5%	6.6%	6.4%	76.4	84.2	Chase mode
20	Detroit Tigers34-44 · AL Central	16.8%	-1.8 pts	+1.4 pts	+2.5 pts	9.9%	6.9%	3.2%	74.4	84.2	Chase mode
21	Miami Marlins40-39 · NL East	11.6%	-27.1 pts	-12.8 pts	-4.1 pts	1.1%	10.5%	0.2%	82.5	100.2	Long shot
22	Kansas City Royals33-46 · AL Central	9.8%	-1.9 pts	+0.7 pts	-9.7 pts	2.6%	7.2%	0.6%	69.4	84.2	Long shot
23	Boston Red Sox31-45 · AL East	9.7%	-2.6 pts	-7.1 pts	-13.3 pts	0.1%	9.6%	0.0%	69.3	84.2	Long shot
24	Pittsburgh Pirates39-39 · NL Central	9.5%	-27.2 pts	-22.6 pts	-23.9 pts	0.3%	9.2%	0.0%	80.8	100.2	Long shot
25	Arizona Diamondbacks39-39 · NL West	8.4%	-23.9 pts	-23.0 pts	-32.9 pts	0.1%	8.3%	0.0%	79.6	100.2	Long shot
26	Los Angeles Angels32-48 · AL West	6.9%	-2.0 pts	-5.7 pts	-1.8 pts	1.3%	5.5%	0.3%	66.8	84.2	Long shot
27	Cincinnati Reds37-40 · NL Central	5.4%	-16.6 pts	-16.1 pts	-20.0 pts	0.1%	5.3%	0.0%	76.3	100.2	Long shot
28	New York Mets34-43 · NL East	2.9%	-9.8 pts	-8.5 pts	-5.3 pts	0.1%	2.9%	0.0%	72.7	100.2	Faint pulse
29	San Francisco Giants31-46 · NL West	1.3%	-4.9 pts	-5.4 pts	-5.1 pts	0.1%	1.3%	0.0%	66.3	100.2	Faint pulse
30	Colorado Rockies31-48 · NL West	1.0%	-3.5 pts	-2.4 pts	-2.3 pts	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	64.7	100.2	Faint pulse

In-house estimate from MLB Central data; not official MLB, sportsbook, or FanGraphs odds. Daily trend line is reconstructed from completed mlb_games rows plus the current standings snapshot.