2026 · Transparent Model · All 30 Clubs

Playoff Odds Lab

Daily postseason probability, reconstructed from real completed games and the current standings snapshot. Pick any team and see the division path, wild-card path, bye path, cutline, and day-over-day movement.

All teams Timeline Movement Standings JSON

8.4% Long shot

D-backs -23.5 pts since last model day

NL West Arizona Diamondbacks

Record40-39 Projected80.4 W WC Cut101.0 W Run Diff-25

Focus

Trend D-backs over 75 model days

Paths How they get in

Division0.1%

Wild Card8.3%

First-round bye0.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks 40-39, 3rd in NL West, 1.5 games back of the final wild card with 83 to play; model gives them 8.4% playoff odds.

Movement What changed

Largest riser Mariners +0.4 pts Largest faller Padres -29.6 pts

Timeline scrubber Replay the odds board

Model day 2026-06-24

LeaderDodgers 99.4% Bubble11 clubs Best daily jumpMariners +0.4 pts Sharpest dropPadres -29.6 pts

Dodgers51-29 · NL West DIV 99.5%WC 0.1% 99.4% 0.0 pts #2

Brewers48-29 · NL Central DIV 98.7%WC 1.1% 99.4% 0.0 pts #3

Yankees47-31 · AL East DIV 97.3%WC 2.4% 99.4% 0.0 pts #4

Braves48-29 · NL East DIV 96.4%WC 2.8% 99.2% -0.2 pts #5

Mariners41-39 · AL West DIV 85.0%WC 9.0% 93.9% +0.4 pts #6

White Sox41-37 · AL Central DIV 62.7%WC 21.8% 84.5% -2.2 pts #7

Cubs41-37 · NL Central DIV 1.2%WC 53.8% 55.0% 0.0 pts #8

Phillies43-36 · NL East DIV 3.5%WC 51.5% 55.0% 0.0 pts #9

Rays43-33 · AL East DIV 2.8%WC 52.2% 55.0% -17.2 pts #10

Cardinals42-35 · NL Central DIV 1.1%WC 53.9% 55.0% 0.0 pts #11

Guardians41-39 · AL Central DIV 37.0%WC 18.0% 55.0% -0.6 pts #12

Blue Jays39-40 · AL East DIV 0.4%WC 54.6% 55.0% 0.0 pts #13

Rangers38-41 · AL West DIV 15.2%WC 11.7% 26.9% -13.0 pts #14

Twins38-43 · AL Central DIV 15.2%WC 8.1% 23.4% -8.0 pts #15

Athletics38-41 · AL West DIV 9.4%WC 13.8% 23.1% -12.2 pts #16

Astros38-43 · AL West DIV 11.8%WC 10.5% 22.3% -7.8 pts #17

Orioles38-43 · AL East DIV 0.1%WC 20.7% 20.8% -10.8 pts #18

Tigers34-45 · AL Central DIV 5.2%WC 7.7% 13.0% -5.8 pts #19

Nationals41-39 · NL East DIV 1.4%WC 10.5% 11.9% -27.3 pts #20

Padres40-37 · NL West DIV 0.2%WC 11.6% 11.7% -29.6 pts #21

Marlins41-39 · NL East DIV 1.3%WC 10.2% 11.5% -26.9 pts #22

Royals34-46 · AL Central DIV 3.6%WC 7.4% 11.0% -4.1 pts #23

Red Sox32-45 · AL East DIV 0.1%WC 9.9% 9.9% -5.6 pts #24

D-backs40-39 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 8.3% 8.4% -23.5 pts #25

Pirates39-40 · NL Central DIV 0.2%WC 7.1% 7.3% -22.2 pts #26

Angels33-48 · AL West DIV 1.1%WC 5.9% 7.0% -4.2 pts #27

Reds37-41 · NL Central DIV 0.1%WC 4.1% 4.1% -13.3 pts #28

Mets34-44 · NL East DIV 0.1%WC 2.1% 2.1% -7.9 pts #29

Giants32-46 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 1.4% 1.4% -4.8 pts #30

Rockies31-49 · NL West DIV 0.1%WC 0.8% 0.8% -2.8 pts

Movement board All 30 over time

1D riser Mariners +0.4 pts 1D faller Padres -29.6 pts 7D riser White Sox +21.0 pts 7D faller Padres -43.3 pts

Dodgers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 95.6%-99.4% Control

Brewers 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 23.1%-99.4% Control

Yankees 99.4%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+11.5 pts

Window 55.3%-99.4% Control

Braves 99.2%

1D-0.2 pts 7D-0.2 pts 30D-0.2 pts

Window 99.2%-99.4% Control

Mariners 93.9%

1D+0.4 pts 7D+1.7 pts 30D+42.6 pts

Window 18.6%-95.2% On track

White Sox 84.5%

1D-2.2 pts 7D+21.0 pts 30D+28.7 pts

Window 3.0%-86.7% On track

Phillies 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+32.8 pts

Window 1.2%-55.7% In the mix

Cubs 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+11.3 pts

Window 25.3%-99.3% In the mix

Rays 55.0%

1D-17.2 pts 7D-22.0 pts 30D-36.6 pts

Window 55.0%-93.7% In the mix

Cardinals 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D-5.1 pts 30D0.0 pts

Window 17.9%-62.8% In the mix

Guardians 55.0%

1D-0.6 pts 7D-7.5 pts 30D-43.1 pts

Window 55.0%-99.0% In the mix

Blue Jays 55.0%

1D0.0 pts 7D0.0 pts 30D+14.4 pts

Window 5.8%-55.0% In the mix

Rangers 26.9%

1D-13.0 pts 7D-18.8 pts 30D-12.0 pts

Window 26.9%-96.0% Chase mode

Twins 23.4%

1D-8.0 pts 7D-11.6 pts 30D-31.6 pts

Window 19.3%-99.2% Chase mode

Athletics 23.1%

1D-12.2 pts 7D-31.9 pts 30D-31.9 pts

Window 23.1%-91.7% Chase mode

Astros 22.3%

1D-7.8 pts 7D-8.2 pts 30D-3.8 pts

Window 11.0%-32.3% Chase mode

Orioles 20.8%

1D-10.8 pts 7D-13.8 pts 30D-5.2 pts

Window 16.8%-55.0% Chase mode

Tigers 13.0%

1D-5.8 pts 7D-2.6 pts 30D-3.5 pts

Window 9.8%-93.8% Long shot

Nationals 11.9%

1D-27.3 pts 7D-43.1 pts 30D-15.9 pts

Window 6.8%-55.0% Long shot

Padres 11.7%

1D-29.6 pts 7D-43.3 pts 30D-43.3 pts

Window 11.7%-74.2% Long shot

Marlins 11.5%

1D-26.9 pts 7D-19.7 pts 30D-6.8 pts

Window 6.8%-55.0% Long shot

Royals 11.0%

1D-4.1 pts 7D-0.7 pts 30D-9.2 pts

Window 4.8%-55.0% Long shot

Red Sox 9.9%

1D-5.6 pts 7D-7.0 pts 30D-16.3 pts

Window 9.2%-42.8% Long shot

D-backs 8.4%

1D-23.5 pts 7D-31.8 pts 30D-46.6 pts

Window 8.1%-55.4% Long shot

Pirates 7.3%

1D-22.2 pts 7D-33.2 pts 30D-29.5 pts

Window 7.3%-97.2% Long shot

Angels 7.0%

1D-4.2 pts 7D-5.5 pts 30D-3.1 pts

Window 5.5%-57.4% Long shot

Reds 4.1%

1D-13.3 pts 7D-17.1 pts 30D-25.3 pts

Window 4.1%-64.9% Faint pulse

Mets 2.1%

1D-7.9 pts 7D-12.7 pts 30D-4.9 pts

Window 1.3%-19.0% Faint pulse

Giants 1.4%

1D-4.8 pts 7D-7.1 pts 30D-4.1 pts

Window 1.4%-14.5% Faint pulse

Rockies 0.8%

1D-2.8 pts 7D-2.7 pts 30D-2.1 pts

Window 0.8%-15.0% Faint pulse

National League Top paths

DodgersControl 99.4%

BrewersControl 99.4%

BravesControl 99.2%

PhilliesIn the mix 55.0%

CubsIn the mix 55.0%

CardinalsIn the mix 55.0%

NationalsLong shot 11.9%

American League Top paths

YankeesControl 99.4%

MarinersOn track 93.9%

White SoxOn track 84.5%

RaysIn the mix 55.0%

GuardiansIn the mix 55.0%

Blue JaysIn the mix 55.0%

RangersChase mode 26.9%

NL West

Dodgers 99.5%

Padres 0.2%

D-backs 0.1%

Giants 0.1%

Rockies 0.1%

NL Central

Brewers 98.7%

Cubs 1.2%

Cardinals 1.1%

Pirates 0.2%

Reds 0.1%

AL East

Yankees 97.3%

Rays 2.8%

Blue Jays 0.4%

Orioles 0.1%

Red Sox 0.1%

NL East

Braves 96.4%

Phillies 3.5%

Nationals 1.4%

Marlins 1.3%

Mets 0.1%

AL West

Mariners 85.0%

Rangers 15.2%

Astros 11.8%

Athletics 9.4%

Angels 1.1%

AL Central

White Sox 62.7%

Guardians 37.0%

Twins 15.2%

Tigers 5.2%

Royals 3.6%

All teams Odds board

#	Team	Playoff	1D	7D	30D	Division	WC	Bye	Proj W	WC Cut	Status
1	Los Angeles Dodgers51-29 · NL West	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	99.5%	0.1%	57.4%	105.5	101.0	Control
2	Milwaukee Brewers48-29 · NL Central	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	98.7%	1.1%	49.4%	102.3	101.0	Control
3	New York Yankees47-31 · AL East	99.4%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+11.5 pts	97.3%	2.4%	79.0%	99.3	85.2	Control
4	Atlanta Braves48-29 · NL East	99.2%	-0.2 pts	-0.2 pts	-0.2 pts	96.4%	2.8%	40.0%	98.5	101.0	Control
5	Seattle Mariners41-39 · AL West	93.9%	+0.4 pts	+1.7 pts	+42.6 pts	85.0%	9.0%	42.5%	83.4	85.2	On track
6	Chicago White Sox41-37 · AL Central	84.5%	-2.2 pts	+21.0 pts	+28.7 pts	62.7%	21.8%	30.7%	83.0	85.2	On track
7	Philadelphia Phillies43-36 · NL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+32.8 pts	3.5%	51.5%	0.7%	86.8	101.0	In the mix
8	Chicago Cubs41-37 · NL Central	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+11.3 pts	1.2%	53.8%	0.2%	86.8	101.0	In the mix
9	Tampa Bay Rays43-33 · AL East	55.0%	-17.2 pts	-22.0 pts	-36.6 pts	2.8%	52.2%	1.6%	86.7	85.2	In the mix
10	St. Louis Cardinals42-35 · NL Central	55.0%	0.0 pts	-5.1 pts	0.0 pts	1.1%	53.9%	0.2%	86.3	101.0	In the mix
11	Cleveland Guardians41-39 · AL Central	55.0%	-0.6 pts	-7.5 pts	-43.1 pts	37.0%	18.0%	16.6%	81.1	85.2	In the mix
12	Toronto Blue Jays39-40 · AL East	55.0%	0.0 pts	0.0 pts	+14.4 pts	0.4%	54.6%	0.2%	79.8	85.2	In the mix
13	Texas Rangers38-41 · AL West	26.9%	-13.0 pts	-18.8 pts	-12.0 pts	15.2%	11.7%	5.5%	77.3	85.2	Chase mode
14	Minnesota Twins38-43 · AL Central	23.4%	-8.0 pts	-11.6 pts	-31.6 pts	15.2%	8.1%	5.4%	77.0	85.2	Chase mode
15	Athletics38-41 · AL West	23.1%	-12.2 pts	-31.9 pts	-31.9 pts	9.4%	13.8%	3.0%	75.4	85.2	Chase mode
16	Houston Astros38-43 · AL West	22.3%	-7.8 pts	-8.2 pts	-3.8 pts	11.8%	10.5%	4.0%	76.4	85.2	Chase mode
17	Baltimore Orioles38-43 · AL East	20.8%	-10.8 pts	-13.8 pts	-5.2 pts	0.1%	20.7%	0.0%	75.5	85.2	Chase mode
18	Detroit Tigers34-45 · AL Central	13.0%	-5.8 pts	-2.6 pts	-3.5 pts	5.2%	7.7%	1.4%	72.8	85.2	Long shot
19	Washington Nationals41-39 · NL East	11.9%	-27.3 pts	-43.1 pts	-15.9 pts	1.4%	10.5%	0.2%	83.7	101.0	Long shot
20	San Diego Padres40-37 · NL West	11.7%	-29.6 pts	-43.3 pts	-43.3 pts	0.2%	11.6%	0.0%	82.7	101.0	Long shot
21	Miami Marlins41-39 · NL East	11.5%	-26.9 pts	-19.7 pts	-6.8 pts	1.3%	10.2%	0.2%	83.3	101.0	Long shot
22	Kansas City Royals34-46 · AL Central	11.0%	-4.1 pts	-0.7 pts	-9.2 pts	3.6%	7.4%	0.9%	71.4	85.2	Long shot
23	Boston Red Sox32-45 · AL East	9.9%	-5.6 pts	-7.0 pts	-16.3 pts	0.1%	9.9%	0.0%	70.3	85.2	Long shot
24	Arizona Diamondbacks40-39 · NL West	8.4%	-23.5 pts	-31.8 pts	-46.6 pts	0.1%	8.3%	0.0%	80.4	101.0	Long shot
25	Pittsburgh Pirates39-40 · NL Central	7.3%	-22.2 pts	-33.2 pts	-29.5 pts	0.2%	7.1%	0.0%	80.1	101.0	Long shot
26	Los Angeles Angels33-48 · AL West	7.0%	-4.2 pts	-5.5 pts	-3.1 pts	1.1%	5.9%	0.2%	67.8	85.2	Long shot
27	Cincinnati Reds37-41 · NL Central	4.1%	-13.3 pts	-17.1 pts	-25.3 pts	0.1%	4.1%	0.0%	75.5	101.0	Faint pulse
28	New York Mets34-44 · NL East	2.1%	-7.9 pts	-12.7 pts	-4.9 pts	0.1%	2.1%	0.0%	71.0	101.0	Faint pulse
29	San Francisco Giants32-46 · NL West	1.4%	-4.8 pts	-7.1 pts	-4.1 pts	0.1%	1.4%	0.0%	68.1	101.0	Faint pulse
30	Colorado Rockies31-49 · NL West	0.8%	-2.8 pts	-2.7 pts	-2.1 pts	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	64.0	101.0	Faint pulse

In-house estimate from MLB Central data; not official MLB, sportsbook, or FanGraphs odds. Daily trend line is reconstructed from completed mlb_games rows plus the current standings snapshot.